With the worlds’ attention diverted by the ongoing Covid–19 pandemic the clock is steadily counting down to 31^st December and the end of the transition phase of the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union. The fact that the Withdrawal agreement effectively leaves Northern Ireland still firmly fixed in the EU as far as trade in goods is concerned creates challenges, particularly in relation to trade flows from Great Britain to Northern Ireland. 

The Northern Ireland Protocol is intended to create unfettered access for trade throughout the Island of Ireland but  much remains to be clarified around how this will be delivered against the backdrop of UK divergence from the European Union standards and tariffs.

The Protocol indicates that Northern Ireland is to continue to operate within the European Union, with goods considered to be in free circulation. As a result there will be no duties payable on goods moving in or out of Northern Ireland from or to European member states. 

The more difficult issue seems to be around the movement of goods from Great Britain to Northern Ireland – this will effectively will be treated as an import into the European Union unless it can be proved that the goods do not move out of Northern Ireland. 

The implementation of an effective Irish sea border for GB goods entering NI will add an administrative burden as UK goods become subject to 3^rd Country import requirements. 

For example, Northern Ireland livestock producers currently enjoy easy access to GB grain with  around half a million tonnes crossing the Irish sea each year. In the absence of a favourable trade deal this will require a 33% increase in import activity in terms of physical checks, increased customs paperwork, delays and related activities such as training and development of IT systems. These business transaction and set-up costs will reduce the competitiveness of GB grain and could add to feed costs in Northern Ireland. This is before we consider the requirement for verification of compliance with the EU SPS regulations and for tariffs to apply. There is potential for local feed businesses to be liable for tariffs of around £60 million per annum - which would be refundable subject to proof that the product is consumed within Northern Ireland. 

There are hundreds of similar challenges facing every sector of the economy and for the Northern Ireland business community there are major concerns as to future engagement with the EU - who will represent us if we have no seat at the table ?

Complex and detailed negotiations around the operation of the Protocol will take place over the coming months  - the outcome is vital to the future of the Agri-food sector and to the prosperity of Northern Ireland - it is essential that the province has an effective voice, and the opportunity to influence these discussions.